B.A.P.N. Sandaruwini . L.W. Somathilake

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Ruhuna, Matara, Sri Lanka, Email: nadishikasandaruwini2@gmail.com, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Ruhuna, Matara, Sri Lanka, Email: sthilake@maths.ruh.ac.lk, lwsoma@gmail.com

Received in final form on January 22, 2022

Abstract
Corona Virus-2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease that is spreading in most countries all over the world. Control strategies such as social distancing, quarantine protocols, and hospitalized isolations are used to suppress the spread of COVID-19 in the community. This research proposes a deterministic compartmental mathematical model for the COVID-19 control process by considering the above-mentioned control strategies. Population subclasses; susceptible (S), exposed (E), immigrant (E1), infectious (I), self-quarantine (Q1), quarantine in centres (Q2), hospital isolated (H), and recovered (R) are considered in constructing the model. This model is a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The model has two equilibrium points: the disease-free equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point. We computed the basic reproduction number (R0) of the model by using next-generation matrix (NGM) methods. Also, we solved the system numerically and the numerical solutions help to esti- mate the number of individuals in each population subclass at a given time. We check the effectiveness of the model parameters on the spread of the disease by analyzing the sensitivity of the basic reproduction number. It is observed that the most effective parameter is the rate of transmission to the susceptible class from the exposed class and the next effective parameter is the rate of transfer of the exposed class to the quarantine in centres class. We show that the infectious curve flattens when actions are taken to increase the quarantines and hospitalized isolations and to decrease the incidence and the exposure rate.

Keywords
COVID-19, Mathematical Model, Basic Reproduction Number, Disease-Free Equilibrium, Endemic Equilibrium, Sensitivity Analysis, Control Strategies.

Cite This Article
B.A.P.N. Sandaruwini . L.W. Somathilake, The Effect of Control Strategies on the Spread of COVID-19 based on a Mathematical Model, J.Innovation Sciences and Sustainable Technologies, 2(2)(2022), 75-90. https://doie.org/10.0608/JISST.2022685078

    93    3    Download